In the first national estimate in two decades, UCSF reports that three times as many Americans have atrial fibrillation than previous estimates.
Summary: A study from UC San Francisco reveals that atrial fibrillation (A-Fib), a potentially life-threatening heart condition, is more common than previously thought, affecting nearly 5% of the U.S. population—approximately 10.5 million adults—three times more than previously estimated. The rise is attributed to aging, increasing rates of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. The study underscores the need for better prevention, early detection, and treatment of A-Fib to mitigate serious health risks like stroke and heart failure.
Three Key Takeaways:
- A-Fib Prevalence Tripled: The study shows that atrial fibrillation affects 10.5 million U.S. adults, nearly three times more than prior estimates.
- Health Risks: A-Fib is associated with serious health risks, including a doubled mortality rate, increased chances of stroke, heart failure, kidney disease, and dementia, making early detection crucial.
- Technological Advances: With increasing use of wearables and digital health tools for A-Fib detection, the number of diagnosed cases may grow further, emphasizing the importance of public health interventions.
Atrial fibrillation (A-Fib), a rapid, irregular heartbeat that can lead to stroke or sudden death, is three times more common than previously thought, affecting nearly 5% of the population, or 10.5 million US adults, according to new estimates from UC San Francisco.
A-Fib has been on the rise for at least the past decade, driven by the aging of the population, along with increasing rates of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. Earlier projections had estimated that 3.3 million US adults had atrial fibrillation, but these have not been updated in more than two decades.
The study appears in JACC.
“Atrial fibrillation doubles the risk of mortality, is one of the most common causes of stroke, increases risks of heart failure, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, and dementia and results in lower quality of life,” says first author Jean Jacques Noubiap, MD, PhD, a postdoctoral scholar at UCSF with a specialty in global cardiovascular health, in a release. “Fortunately, atrial fibrillation is preventable, and early detection and appropriate treatment can substantially reduce its adverse outcomes.”
Rising Numbers Reflect Need for Better Prevention and Treatment
UCSF investigators reviewed the medical records of nearly 30 million adult patients who received some form of acute or procedural care in California from 2005 to 2019. About 2 million of these people had been diagnosed with A-Fib, and the numbers grew over time, rising from 4.49% of the patients treated between 2005 and 2009 to 6.82% of the patients treated between 2015 and 2019.
The data were standardized to reflect the entire country, and researchers estimated the current national prevalence to be at least 10.55 million. They also found that during the study timeframe, A-Fib patients skewed younger, were less likely to be female, and more likely to have hypertension and diabetes.
A-Fib has a broad spectrum of complications from shortness of breath and light-headedness to blood clots, stroke, and even heart failure. Studies have shown that people with A-Fib are up to five times more likely to have a stroke. The authors said that, by outlining the scope of the problem, these new estimates can help guide health care planning, resource allocation, and public health interventions.
“Physicians recognize that atrial fibrillation is often encountered in essentially every field of practice,” says senior and corresponding author Gregory M. Marcus, MD, MAS, a cardiologist and electrophysiologist at UCSF Health, in a release. “These data provide objective evidence to demonstrate that prior projections severely underestimated how common it truly is.”
Digital technologies may reveal it is even more common than the current analysis indicates.
“With the growing use of consumer wearables designed to detect atrial fibrillation combined with safer and more effective means to treat it, this current prevalence of atrial fibrillation in health care settings may soon be dwarfed by future healthcare utilization that will occur due to the disease,” Marcus says in a release.
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